As world leaders gather in London to discuss security concerns originating from the failed bombing on Christmas of a jet bound for Detroit, al-Jazeera investigates what some Yemenis are saying. The message is fairly clear.
Two of the most prominent Yemeni tribal leaders, Sheiks al-Ahmar and a-Zidani, have expressed the fear of and opposition to foreign intervention in Yemen, claiming that the presence of outside troops on their soil will lead to another Iraq or Afghanistan "or even Somalia." They stressed that Yemen is capable of dealing with the threat from al-Qaeda on its own, as well as with the ever worsening situations in the North and South of the country.
"We don't want a conference that could lead to a reoccupation or division of Yemen," stated al-Ahmar. Part of Yemen was under British control for most of the 2oth century, and reunification of North and South Yemen took place less only twenty years ago. Foreign troops, particularly western troops, would be dangerously reminiscent of Yemen's time as a colony and client state.
The statements support the Yemeni government's natural inclination to reject direct foreign intervention and seek instead economic support. The government's widespread and well known corruption, however, means that increased financial aide won't necessarily lead to an improved situation.
Intervention is not an option, though. Yemen is one of the most rugged countries on earth. Most of the land is desert, and where there is rain there are also impressive mountains. Almost the entire population is heavily armed - there is a joke in Yemen that for every person there are three guns, and this is not far off the mark. In addition, while many Yemenis are not particularly loyal to the government or the state, they are fiercely protective of their land, culture, and history. Yemen is, according the anthropologist and Yemen specialist Paul Dresch, one of the only Arab countries that the Europeans did not fabricate after WWI. That is, people living in Yemen had a sense of identity as Yemenis clearly connected to a particular land area, unlike, for example, Jordanians, who are mostly Palestinian. These factors mean that intervention would most likely be doomed to costly failure.
Thus, the governments meeting in London have something of a dilemma on their hands. They cannot intervene, and what support they do give the Yemeni government is not guaranteed to wind up in the right place. Given that many Yemenis, particularly in the South, where there is a strong secessionist movement, are demonstrably opposed to President Saleh and his cronies, courting the government could backfire. Yemenis who feel themselves ostracized from the political process will see any aide to the government as a de facto attack on their interests.
I believe that the safest route for interested nations is to reach out to Yemen's numerous and powerful tribes. This means an academic mobilization more than anything else, as there are few in government who can rightly lay claim to the title "expert" when it comes to Yemen. The tribes have, mostly, been opposed to al-Qaeda, and both al-Ahmar and a-Zidani have called for the maintenance of national unity. Tribal leaders tend to be seen as more legitimate in many circles than governmental officials, and so could be excellent bargaining and strategic partners in the quest for peace and security not only in Yemen but in the international community.
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